01 · RANGE
FLOOR, MEDIAN, CEILING
Every player's full outcome range from the simulations, not one average number.
Most tools that say “sims” build lineups first and simulate them after. DFS Only runs 100,000 correlated simulations per slate and builds every lineup inside them — and still lets you set the stacks, locks, and exposures.
Day pass from $5 · or $39/mo for MLB, NFL, and NBA · cancel anytime
A projection is one number: the average of everything that could happen. A DFS simulation plays the slate out over and over, drawing a score for every player from his full range of outcomes — and drawing them together, so teammates and opponents move the way real games move. A Monte Carlo simulator does that 100,000 times. The Monte Carlo explainer goes deeper.
From those 100,000 versions of tonight you get what a single projection can't give you: how often each player shows up in a winning lineup, how high his ceiling really goes, which stack structures win, and where the field is overpaying. Leverage is the sim win rate minus projected ownership — a player in 15% of winning lineups and only 6% of the field's is +9.
The bigger question is where the lineups come from. If a tool builds from rules and then simulates the finished lineups, the sims are only grading. If it builds inside the sims but tells you to leave the settings alone, you've traded your read for a black box. DFS Only does both halves: sim-built lineups, full optimizer control. More in DFS sims: the 3 types of simulation tools.
Every player's full outcome range from the simulations, not one average number.
How often each player lands in the winning and optimal lineups across 100,000 slates.
Win rate minus projected ownership on every player — positive is an underowned winner, negative is the trap.
The handful of ways the slate tends to break, with the games and teams driving each one.
A pool of correlated lineups built during every sim. Filter, sort by ceiling or top-10% rate, save, and export.
Top-10 rate and ceiling by stack structure, so you know which shapes pay — not which ones feel right.
| Traditional optimizer | Sim grader | Black-box sim builder | DFS Only | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projections | One average number | Varies | Varies | Floor, median, and ceiling for every player |
| Where lineups come from | Rules you set | Rules first, then sims rank them | Inside the sims | Inside the sims |
| Correlation | Only what you force | Scored after the build | Built in | Built in — stacks happen because games erupt |
| Your control | Full | Full | Hands-off by design | Full — locks, fades, stacks, exposures |
| Leverage vs. ownership | — | Varies | Varies | On every player, every slate |
Machine-learning projections give every player a floor, median, and ceiling.
The slate plays out 100,000 times with teammates and opponents correlated.
Each lineup is built for a specific simulated slate, so the portfolio covers many ways the night can break.
Your locks, fades, stack settings, and exposure caps are enforced across every lineup.
Download a DraftKings-ready CSV.
Everything is included either way — projections, simulations, leverage data, and the full optimizer. No upsells.
MLB $5 · NBA $5 · NFL $12. Unlocks the full sport for 24 hours from purchase. No subscription.
Try Tonight's Slate →MLB, NFL, and NBA in one plan. Billed monthly, cancel anytime. Secure checkout via Stripe.
Get Pro →DFS sims (simulations) play a slate out thousands of times, drawing each player's score from his range of outcomes with correlation between teammates and opponents. The result is a distribution — win rates, ceilings, floors, and optimal rates — instead of one projected number.
Enough that rare but slate-winning outcomes show up reliably. DFS Only runs 100,000 simulations per slate so ceiling games and correlated blowups are well represented.
Leverage is a player's simulation win rate minus his projected ownership. Positive leverage means he wins more often than the field rosters him; negative means the field is overpaying.
Same family of approach, different philosophy. Some sim tools build lineups from ownership and stack rules first, then simulate the finished lineups to rank them. Others build from sims but discourage you from touching exposures and rules. DFS Only builds every lineup inside the sim worlds and keeps the full optimizer toolkit — exposures, locks, stack settings — in your hands.
Yes. DFS Only simulates NFL, MLB, and NBA slates on DraftKings, Classic and Showdown, all in one $39/mo plan or by day pass.
For tournaments, usually. A regular optimizer maximizes one average total, so it tends toward the same lineup as everyone else. Sims expose correlation and ceiling, which is what GPPs pay for. For cash games, projections still matter most — and the diversity setting lets you build toward either.
One slate from $5. Or every sport for $39/mo. Cancel anytime.
Run Tonight's Sims — From $5 →