2026 MLB SEASON — LIVE NOW

STOP GUESSING.
START SIMULATING.

The only MLB DFS optimizer that runs 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations per slate to find the lineups your competition can't.

Start Free Trial → See How It Works
100K
Simulations per slate
6
Projection factors
<30s
Full slate build
Optimized for
DraftKings
Classic
Showdown
CSV Export
dfsonly — simulation engine
Loading slate: MLB Classic — Apr 26
Players loaded: 142 | Games: 8
Running 100,000 correlated Monte Carlo sims...
████████████████████████████████████████ 100%
Top leverage plays found:
  J. Soto      own 24.1%  win 31.8%  lev +7.7
  M. Betts     own 18.5%  win 26.2%  lev +7.7
  C. Carroll   own 6.2%  win 14.9%  lev +8.7
Overowned fades:
  K. Tucker    own 32.4%  win 19.1%  lev -13.3
Portfolio built: 20 lineups | avg pts: 148.3 | unique: 100%
// HOW IT WORKS

FROM RAW DATA TO
WINNING LINEUPS

Four stages. Zero guesswork. Every projection backed by real game logs and thousands of simulations.

01

INGEST

Real-time depth charts, confirmed lineups, batting orders, Vegas lines, injury reports, and weather data flow in automatically.

02

PROJECT

ML models trained on thousands of box scores generate base projections. Adjusted for opposing pitcher, batting order, park factors, and implied runs.

03

SIMULATE

100K correlated Monte Carlo sims with game-level and team-level correlation factors. Not independent draws — real teammate correlation.

04

OPTIMIZE

Portfolio optimizer builds coordinated lineup sets with stack allocation, exposure caps, leverage scoring, and uniqueness enforcement.

// FEATURES

EVERYTHING THE SHARPS USE.
SIMPLIFIED.

Tournament-grade tools that used to take custom Python scripts and a math degree. Now it takes one click.

🎲

MONTE CARLO SIMS

Up to 100,000 simulations per slate with correlated random score generation. Game-level and team-level correlation — because when the game goes over, the whole lineup eats.

CORRELATED SIMS
🧠

ML PROJECTIONS

Gradient-boosted models trained on real box score data. Rolling 7/14/30-day windows, hot streak detection, pitcher matchup adjustments, and contextual factors baked in.

GRADIENT BOOSTING

LEVERAGE SCORING

Simulation win rate minus projected ownership. Instantly see who the field is sleeping on and who's chalk that doesn't deserve it. The edge GPP grinders need.

WIN RATE vs OWN%
📊

STACK BUILDER

Configure 5-3, 4-4, 5-2-1, 4-3, or 5-2 stack types. Allocate primary and secondary stacking percentages per team. The optimizer enforces your game theory.

5 STACK TYPES
🎯

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZER

Build 20+ lineups as a coordinated set, not random one-offs. Global exposure caps, max overlap enforcement, and salary optimization across the entire portfolio.

COORDINATED SETS
📡

LIVE DATA PIPELINE

Vegas odds, implied runs, confirmed lineups, batting orders, injuries, and weather — updated in real time. Never build on stale data again.

REAL-TIME UPDATES
Top Leverage Plays — Sample Slate
PLAYEROWN%WIN%LEVERAGE
C. Carroll6.2%14.9%+8.7
J. Soto24.1%31.8%+7.7
A. Bregman9.8%16.1%+6.3
K. Tucker32.4%19.1%-13.3
A. Judge41.2%34.0%-7.2

OWNERSHIP IS
NOT SKILL.
LEVERAGE IS.

Everyone knows who the "best" plays are. The field piles in at 30-40% ownership on chalk. That's not an edge — that's a coin flip with bad odds.

Leverage scoring compares how often a player appears in simulated winning lineups versus how often the field will roster them. Positive leverage = underowned winner. Negative = overowned trap.

This is how GPP grinders separate from the pack. Not by picking the best players — by picking the best players that nobody else has.

BUILT BY A GRINDER,
FOR GRINDERS

DFS Only was born out of frustration with generic optimizers that spit out the same chalk lineups everyone else has. We built the tools we wished existed.

I was building lineups by gut feel for two years. The leverage scoring alone changed everything — I'm fading the right chalk and it's showing in my bankroll.

M
Mike R.
MLB GPP Grinder
+$2,400 first month

The correlated sims are the real deal. Other tools give you random lineups — this actually understands that when the game goes over, the whole stack eats. Night and day difference.

J
Jake T.
Showdown Specialist
3x GPP wins in 2 weeks

Honestly the stack builder sold me. Being able to set exact percentages per team and let the optimizer handle the rest? I used to spend 2 hours on that manually. Now it's 30 seconds.

D
Derek L.
MME Player — 150 entries/night
Top 1% on 4 slates

BUILT TO MAKE YOU MONEY,
NOT TAKE IT

Start free. Upgrade when you're winning.

FREE
$0
Forever. No credit card.
  • ML-powered projections (blurred)
  • Up to 3 lineup builds per day
  • Classic + Showdown slates
  • Player lock / exclude
  • Full projection data
  • Leverage & ownership data
  • CSV export to DraftKings
  • Unlimited lineups
Start Free

COMMON QUESTIONS

What is a Monte Carlo simulation?

Instead of using a single projection for each player, we generate 100,000 random game outcomes using correlated probability distributions. Players on the same team and in the same game are linked — when the game goes high-scoring, everyone benefits. This gives you a much more realistic picture of upside, floor, ceiling, and optimal lineups.

What does "leverage scoring" mean?

Leverage = simulation win rate minus projected ownership. If a player shows up in 15% of winning lineups but only 6% of the field rosters him, that's +9 leverage — a huge edge in GPPs. Negative leverage means the field is overvaluing a player relative to their actual win potential.

What platforms do you support?

Currently we support DraftKings Classic and Showdown contest formats for MLB. We're built specifically for DK's salary structures, roster rules, and scoring. FanDuel support is on the roadmap.

How are your projections generated?

We use gradient-boosted machine learning models trained on real MLB box scores. Features include rolling 7/14/30-day performance windows, opposing pitcher matchups, batting order position, Vegas implied runs, park factors, and weather conditions. Models are retrained as the season progresses.

Can I export lineups to DraftKings?

Yes — Pro subscribers can export their lineup portfolios as CSV files formatted for direct upload to DraftKings. Build your lineups, hit export, upload to DK. That's it.

Is this free to try?

Absolutely. The free tier gives you access to blurred projections, up to 3 lineup builds per day, and both Classic and Showdown formats. No credit card required. Upgrade to Pro when you're ready for the full data and unlimited builds.

YOUR LINEUP DESERVES
BETTER MATH.

Free to start. No credit card. Projections go live when lineups lock.

Create Free Account →