What DFS platforms does DFS Only support?

DFS Only currently supports DraftKings Classic and Showdown contest formats for MLB. The platform is built specifically for DraftKings salary structures, roster rules, and scoring.

Is DFS Only free to try?

Yes. Your first day is completely free with full access and no restrictions. Credit card required. After 24 hours it is $19.99 per month. You can cancel anytime before the trial ends and you will not be charged.

DFS Only — MLB Lineup Optimizer and Simulations

// Inside the app

SEE WHAT YOU GET.
BEFORE YOU COMMIT.

Player Projections — ML-Powered

Dylan Cease

P · TOR · $10,000 ▲$100 · Dome

21.6

CPT 32.4

CEIL

44.7

FLOOR

4.2

VAL

2.2

OWN

13%

Jacob Misiorowski

P · MIL · $10,500 ▲$400 · Dome

21.1

CPT 31.6

CEIL

39.1

FLOOR

7.6

VAL

2.0

OWN

13%

Shohei Ohtani

P · LAD · $10,700 ▲$4,200 · 70° 10mph

20.8

CPT 31.2

CEIL

34.0

FLOOR

18.9

VAL

1.9

OWN

13%

Matchup Analysis — Pitcher vs Hitter

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS

Cal Raleighvs McCullers Jr.+9.4%

Juan Sotovs Valdez+8.1%

Joey Ortizvs King+6.7%

Jonah Heimvs Liberatore+5.9%

Drew Romovs Lugo+4.8%

Ketel Martevs Rocker+3.6%

Leo Jiménezvs Richardson-9.1%

Austin Martinvs Meyer-7.7%

George Springervs Jax-6.3%

Jake Fraleyvs Cease-5.4%

Gabriel Morenovs Rocker-9.5%

Corey Seagervs Nelson-8.2%

Dashboard — Game Environment

Weather & Game Environment

MIAvsMIN

4.9—4.1

O/U 9

70° 9 mph

KCvsCHW

4.0—4.0

O/U 8

51° 8 mph

TBvsTOR

3.1—4.4

O/U 7.5

⌂ Dome

STLvsOAK

4.3—5.7

O/U 10

70° 9 mph

SDvsMIL

2.9—4.1

O/U 7

⌂ Dome

CHCvsATL

4.7—3.8

O/U 8.5

77° 7 mph

// The math

FOUR ENGINES.
ONE UNFAIR ADVANTAGE.

// Engine 01

ML PROJECTIONS

Gradient-boosted models trained on thousands of real box scores. Rolling performance windows, pitcher matchups, batting order, Vegas lines, park factors, and weather. You get a floor, a ceiling, and a projected value — not just a single number.

Floor / Ceiling Weather-Aware Matchup Context

// Engine 02

100K SIMULATIONS

The entire slate simulated 100,000 times with correlated outcomes at the game and team level. When the Dodgers put up an 8-run inning, every Dodger benefits together. Real correlation, the way baseball actually works.

Correlated Sims Team + Game Win Rates

// Engine 03

LEVERAGE SCORING

Simulation win rate minus projected ownership. If a player appears in 15% of winning lineups but only 6% of the field rosters him, that's +9 leverage — a massive GPP edge. Find underowned winners. Dodge chalk traps.

Win% vs Own% Chalk Traps Optimal Pivots

// Engine 04

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZER

20 coordinated lineups, each built inside the sim worlds themselves, covering different game scripts without stepping on each other. Correlated stacks (5-3, 4-4, 5-2-1, and more), exposure caps, uniqueness enforcement, and direct CSV export to DraftKings.

5 Stack Types Exposure Caps CSV Export

// Why it's different

SIMS THAT BUILD.
NOT GRADE.

Every lineup tool falls into one of three buckets. Only one builds your lineups inside the simulations — and still lets you keep the wheel.

// Old school

TRADITIONAL OPTIMIZERS

One average projection per player, jammed under the salary cap. Stacks only exist because you forced them with rules. A .300 hitter still gets out 70% of the time — a single number can't tell you that.

Single Projection Forced Stacks No Correlation

// Half measure

SIM GRADERS

They build lineups first — from ownership rules and stack settings — then run simulations on the finished product to rank them. The sims judge your lineups. They never built them.

Build First Sim After Rules-Based

// DFS Only

BUILT INSIDE THE SIMS

Lineups are constructed inside the sim worlds themselves. When a team erupts in a simulation, that stack lands in your build because it happened — not because a rule forced it. And your exposures, locks, and caps apply the whole way through.

Built In-Sim Natural Correlation Full Control

// Beyond the math

AND THE TOOLS TO
CASH THE TICKET.

// Live tool

LATE SWAPS

A starter gets scratched an hour before first pitch. Instead of eating a zero, swap him out before his game locks — and re-optimize the open spots around the players already locked in. Salvage the slate instead of watching it burn.

React to Scratches Swap Before Lock Re-Optimize Live

// Built in

SLATE CHAT

A chat room for every slate, built right into the app. Talk pivots, breaking news, and bad beats with other grinders without leaving for Discord or juggling a second screen. It's all in one place.

Per-Slate Room Breaking News No Discord Needed

Top Leverage Plays — Sample Slate

C. Carroll6.2%14.9%+8.7

J. Soto24.1%31.8%+7.7

A. Bregman9.8%16.1%+6.3

K. Tucker32.4%19.1%-13.3

A. Judge41.2%34.0%-7.2

// This is the edge

EVERYONE KNOWS THE "BEST" PLAYS.
THAT'S NOT AN EDGE.

The field piles in at 30-40% ownership on chalk. You're not gaining anything by rostering the most popular player — you're just flipping a coin with bad odds.

Leverage scoring shows you which players appear in winning simulations far more often than the field rosters them. Positive leverage = underowned winner. Negative = the trap everyone's walking into.

This is the concept that separates grinders who cash from grinders who donate. Not picking the best players — picking the best players that nobody else has.

dfsonly — simulation engine

▸ Loading slate: MLB Classic — May 12
  Players loaded: 142 | Games: 8
▸ Running 100,000 correlated Monte Carlo sims...
  ████████████████████████████████████████ 100%
▸ Top leverage plays found:
  J. Soto      own 24.1%  win 31.8%  lev +7.7 
  M. Betts     own 18.5%  win 26.2%  lev +7.7 
  C. Carroll   own  6.2%  win 14.9%  lev +8.7 
▸ Overowned fades:
  K. Tucker    own 32.4%  win 19.1%  lev -13.3
▸ Portfolio built: 20 lineups | avg pts: 148.3 | unique: 100%

// The backstory

I SPENT 15 YEARS LOSING.
THEN I BUILT THIS.

I've been grinding DraftKings since the lobbies were small. I watched them explode into shark-infested waters, and for most of that time, I was the guy making the syndicates rich — relying on gut feeling and a spreadsheet held together by duct tape.

The realization that changed everything: the pros aren't predicting outcomes. They're running thousands of possible futures and betting on the patterns that emerge. A .300 hitter still gets out 70% of the time. If you're building one lineup based on the "most likely" outcome, you're already dead.

So I stopped trying to out-guess the experts and started building. I poured every late-swap panic, every slate-breaking bad beat, and every dollar of hard-earned tuition into creating the system I wished had existed when I started.

The tools that do this cost $97 to $300 per month. If your bankroll is $50, spending $100 on software isn't a strategy — it's financial sabotage. So I priced it at $19.99. The same simulation engine, ML projections, and leverage scoring the expensive tools charge a fortune for.

Optimized for

DraftKings

Classic

Showdown

CSV Export

// The receipts

WE GRADE OUR
OWN HOMEWORK.

Every slate: stacks, plays, and fades posted to X before lock. Graded the next morning — hits and misses. Nothing gets deleted.

Before lock — posted 6:07 PM CT

📋 MLB SLATE BREAKDOWN — Jun 9 🔥 TOP STACKS: CHC · COL · OAK ✅ PLAYS: Willi Castro · Joc Pederson · Jared Young 🚫 FADES: Ronald Acuña Jr. · Spencer Steer · Jac Caglianone Sim ceiling, win rates + full card → onlydfs.com

Next morning — graded in public

📊 GRADING LAST NIGHT'S CARD ✗ CHC stack — 50 DK (#14) ✓ COL stack — 93 DK (#1) ✓ Willi Castro — 11 pts ✗ Jared Young — 0 pts ✓ Acuña fade — 0 pts. The field ate it. Model: 5/9 on the card · top plays avg 7 vs slate avg 7.3

The CHC stack missed. The Acuña fade hit. Both stay up. That's the whole policy — you can scroll the feed and count for yourself.

Follow the Daily Card on X →

// Why it's $19.99

NO SALES TEAM.
NO INVESTORS. NO $99 TAB.

This was built for grinders, not venture capitalists. There's no marketing department, no investor returns to chase, no enterprise pricing page. It's one person who plays DFS every night and built the tool he wished existed — then priced it for the bankroll he actually plays with. The math is the same. The overhead isn't.

— Mike · builds it, plays it nightly · @abadmanmike

// Pricing

BUILT TO MAKE YOU MONEY,
NOT TAKE IT

The same simulation approach the $99/mo tools charge for. Less than most single contest entries.

PRO

$19.99/mo

Cancel anytime. First day free.

✓ Full ML-powered projections
✓ 100K correlated simulations
✓ Leverage & sim win rates
✓ Projected ownership data
✓ Floor / ceiling / value scores
✓ Stack builder + team allocation
✓ Up to 20 lineups per build
✓ CSV export to DraftKings

Try Free for 24 Hours →

$0 charged today · cancel anytime before you're billed
Secure checkout via Stripe

// FAQ

COMMON QUESTIONS

What is a Monte Carlo simulation?

Instead of using a single projection for each player, we generate 100,000 random game outcomes using correlated probability distributions. Players on the same team and in the same game are linked — when the game goes high-scoring, everyone benefits. This gives you a much more realistic picture of upside, floor, ceiling, and optimal lineups.

What does "leverage scoring" mean?

Leverage = simulation win rate minus projected ownership. If a player shows up in 15% of winning lineups but only 6% of the field rosters him, that's +9 leverage — a huge edge in GPPs. Negative leverage means the field is overvaluing a player relative to their actual win potential.

What platforms do you support?

Currently we support DraftKings Classic and Showdown contest formats for MLB. We're built specifically for DK's salary structures, roster rules, and scoring. FanDuel support is on the roadmap.

How are your projections generated?

We use gradient-boosted machine learning models trained on real MLB box scores. Features include rolling 7/14/30-day performance windows, opposing pitcher matchups, batting order position, Vegas implied runs, park factors, and weather conditions. Models are retrained as the season progresses.

Can I export lineups to DraftKings?

Yes — you can export your lineup portfolios as CSV files formatted for direct upload to DraftKings. Build your lineups, hit export, upload to DK. That's it.

Is this free to try?

Yes. Your first day is completely free — full access, no restrictions. After 24 hours it's $19.99/mo. You can cancel anytime before the trial ends and you won't be charged.

How is this different from sim tools like SaberSim or Stokastic?

Same family of approach, different philosophy. Some sim tools build lineups from ownership and stack rules first, then simulate the finished lineups to rank them — the sims grade, they don't build. Others construct from sims but discourage you from touching exposures and rules. DFS Only builds every lineup inside the sim worlds and keeps the full optimizer toolkit — exposures, locks, stack settings — in your hands. At a fraction of the price.

Why is this so much cheaper than SaberSim or Stokastic?

Because I built this for grinders, not venture capitalists. There's no sales team, no marketing department, no investor returns to chase. It's one person who plays DFS every night and built the tool he wished existed. The math is the same. The overhead isn't.

THE SAME MATH
THE SHARKS USE.
FOR $19.99/MO.

NO GUESSING.
WATCH IT BUILD.

SEE WHAT YOU GET.
BEFORE YOU COMMIT.

FOUR ENGINES.
ONE UNFAIR ADVANTAGE.

ML PROJECTIONS

100K SIMULATIONS

LEVERAGE SCORING

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZER

SIMS THAT BUILD.
NOT GRADE.

TRADITIONAL OPTIMIZERS

SIM GRADERS

BUILT INSIDE THE SIMS

AND THE TOOLS TO
CASH THE TICKET.

LATE SWAPS

SLATE CHAT

EVERYONE KNOWS THE "BEST" PLAYS.
THAT'S NOT AN EDGE.

WE GRADE OUR
OWN HOMEWORK.

NO SALES TEAM.
NO INVESTORS. NO $99 TAB.

BUILT TO MAKE YOU MONEY,
NOT TAKE IT

COMMON QUESTIONS

THE FIELD PAYS $99/MO FOR THIS MATH.
YOU'RE ABOUT TO PAY $19.99.

THE SAME MATHTHE SHARKS USE.FOR $19.99/MO.

NO GUESSING.WATCH IT BUILD.

SEE WHAT YOU GET.BEFORE YOU COMMIT.

FOUR ENGINES.ONE UNFAIR ADVANTAGE.

ML PROJECTIONS

100K SIMULATIONS

LEVERAGE SCORING

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZER

SIMS THAT BUILD.NOT GRADE.

TRADITIONAL OPTIMIZERS

SIM GRADERS

BUILT INSIDE THE SIMS

AND THE TOOLS TOCASH THE TICKET.

LATE SWAPS

SLATE CHAT

EVERYONE KNOWS THE "BEST" PLAYS.THAT'S NOT AN EDGE.

BUILT BY A GRINDER.TESTED WITH REAL MONEY.

WE GRADE OUROWN HOMEWORK.

NO SALES TEAM.NO INVESTORS. NO $99 TAB.

BUILT TO MAKE YOU MONEY,NOT TAKE IT

COMMON QUESTIONS

THE FIELD PAYS $99/MO FOR THIS MATH.YOU'RE ABOUT TO PAY $19.99.

THE SAME MATH
THE SHARKS USE.
FOR $19.99/MO.

NO GUESSING.
WATCH IT BUILD.

SEE WHAT YOU GET.
BEFORE YOU COMMIT.

FOUR ENGINES.
ONE UNFAIR ADVANTAGE.

SIMS THAT BUILD.
NOT GRADE.

AND THE TOOLS TO
CASH THE TICKET.

EVERYONE KNOWS THE "BEST" PLAYS.
THAT'S NOT AN EDGE.

BUILT BY A GRINDER.
TESTED WITH REAL MONEY.

WE GRADE OUR
OWN HOMEWORK.

NO SALES TEAM.
NO INVESTORS. NO $99 TAB.

BUILT TO MAKE YOU MONEY,
NOT TAKE IT

THE FIELD PAYS $99/MO FOR THIS MATH.
YOU'RE ABOUT TO PAY $19.99.